Donald Trump took much of the world by surprise when he won the US presidential election in 2016. But many business owners in Yiwu, the Chinese city known as the nation’s “small merchandise capital”, predicted Trump would win before most US voters cast their ballots. Four years later, the current race for the presidency is overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic, violent protests in some US cities and a deteriorating US-China relationship. Could the Yiwu Index correctly predict the US election…